Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.220566 0.248395 0.278518 0.313571 0.353271 0.396873 0.448441
2025-11-09 0.165580 0.199665 0.239256 0.288726 0.349010 0.420244 0.511041
2025-11-16 0.131898 0.169039 0.214985 0.276192 0.355886 0.456540 0.593951
2025-11-23 0.106871 0.144785 0.194468 0.264667 0.361846 0.492418 0.682500
2025-11-30 0.092203 0.131549 0.185959 0.267214 0.386396 0.556225 0.819106
2025-12-07 0.076510 0.114406 0.169438 0.255887 0.389607 0.590767 0.920397
2025-12-14 0.065404 0.102170 0.158056 0.250114 0.399820 0.636882 1.046986
2025-12-21 0.056485 0.091894 0.148054 0.244758 0.409587 0.683527 1.182404
2025-12-28 0.051181 0.086552 0.144978 0.249961 0.437189 0.763259 1.387481
2026-01-04 0.045363 0.079496 0.138030 0.247437 0.450939 0.821161 1.563876
2026-01-11 0.041037 0.074396 0.133680 0.248751 0.471612 0.894464 1.782090
2026-01-18 0.037733 0.070658 0.131201 0.253053 0.498408 0.983252 2.046781
2026-01-25 0.033022 0.063792 0.122265 0.244145 0.498999 1.022937 2.222725
2026-02-01 0.028599 0.056892 0.112353 0.231855 0.490856 1.043771 2.363103
2026-02-08 0.025536 0.052287 0.106358 0.226750 0.497132 1.096421 2.586459
2026-02-15 0.022796 0.047980 0.100390 0.220809 0.500645 1.143709 2.807438
2026-02-22 0.021308 0.046115 0.099298 0.225464 0.529068 1.253066 3.204409
2026-03-01 0.019010 0.042183 0.093200 0.217764 0.527099 1.289895 3.423633
2026-03-08 0.017289 0.039317 0.089102 0.214159 0.534546 1.351307 3.722142
2026-03-15 0.015762 0.036700 0.085227 0.210512 0.541294 1.412178 4.032792
2026-03-22 0.014946 0.035649 0.084886 0.215628 0.571684 1.540813 4.567862
2026-03-29 0.013811 0.033681 0.082072 0.213949 0.583556 1.621126 4.976548
2026-04-05 0.012956 0.032299 0.080533 0.215431 0.604500 1.731027 5.503608